Ten most troubled states in the U.S.

Here's a summary of what Pew found is plaguing each of the states:

California: The Golden State's housing collapse -- and resulting unemployment surge -- has plagued the state's economy. The weakening economy prompted revenue to fall by nearly a sixth between the first quarters of 2008 and 2009. State lawmakers have limited ability to deal with California's massive budget gap due to several voter-imposed restrictions, including requirements that all budgets and tax increases pass the legislature by a two-thirds majority.

Arizona: The state depends heavily on a growing economy to bring in tax revenue, and lawmakers don't have a lot of leeway to address budget deficits thanks to voter-imposed spending constraints. Lawmakers relied on one-time fixes to balance its budget instead of making long-term changes.

Rhode Island: The Ocean State has among the highest unemployment rates in the nation and among the highest foreclosure rates in New England. High tax rates, big budget deficits and a lack of high tech jobs are hurting its chances to pull out of the doldrums. State government has a poor record of managing its finances

Michigan: The state never climbed out of the recession that started in 2001, and matters only became worse during the Great Recession. Two of the Big Three Detroit-based automakers went bankrupt in 2009, sending shockwaves through a state on track to lose a quarter of its jobs this decade. The recession accelerated drops in state revenue, and has left Michigan's government trying to deal with today's problems on a 1960s-sized budget.

Nevada: Nevada is one of the recession's big losers as its gaming-based economy suffered. Year-over-year revenue has fallen for two consecutive years, a record. But changing tax laws is tough because some are written into the state constitution.

Oregon: Oregon's leading industries, such as timber and computer-chip manufacturing, have been hit hard in the recession. Lawmakers have approved more than $1 billion in new taxes to keep it afloat. But voters in January will have the final say on another $733 million in new income taxes.

Florida: For the first time since World War II, Florida's population is shrinking -- bad news for an budget built on new residents flocking to the Sunshine State. Lawmakers raised $2 billion in new revenue this year, but could face a similar shortfall next year.

New Jersey: The Garden State, which has been plagued by years of fiscal mismanagement, spends more than it collects in revenue. The collapse of Wall Street, which supports about one-third of New Jersey's economy, has only made matters worse.

Illinois: Since the last recession earlier this decade, the state piled up huge backlogs of Medicaid bills and borrowed money to pay its pension obligations. The state's current budget still relies heavily on borrowing and paying bills late.

Wisconsin: Wisconsin has a long history of budget shortfalls. It also borrows frequently to cover operating expenses, among other measures. Unemployment is climbing as manufacturing, the state's largest sector, sputters.

Economy is becoming Obama's problem

People are beginning to blame Obama, just as much as they blame Bush, for the economic problems. I wonder how this will effect the "Blame Bush" strategy of the Obama administration.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 49% still blame the economic situation on the recession that began under Bush. But 45% now say the nation’s economic problems are caused more by Obama’s policies.

Just a month ago, 55% pointed the finger at Bush, while only 37% said the policies Obama has put in place since taking office were at fault. These findings had remained largely unchanged since May.

GDP in 3rd quarter rises to 3.5%

Is this good news or just a prelude to a double dip recession? Ed at Hot Air makes a good point:

Sales of new homes fell last month, and inventories are not growing. With the government tax credit expiring, those new-home sales and construction will likely fall off. The third-quarter growth in that area will almost certainly represent sales shifted from future quarters, which means that the next quarter will get negatively impacted from this growth.

One key indicator continued to move downward significantly, although Reuters only reports it in the final paragraph:

Business investment fell at 2.5 percent pace, with investment nonresidential structures dropping 9 percent, a reflection of ongoing problems in the commercial property market.

In other words, what we had in the third quarter was not long-term growth based on solid investment in business. We had a flurry of federal spending and consumer behavior predicated on highly temporary government interventions, like Cash for Clunkers and the homebuyer tax credit. That may be enough to make the administration look good for the next three months, but only for that long if they don’t stimulate real investment instead of using these gimmicky programs. If we have a double dip recession after these gimmicks end, Barack Obama won’t have George Bush to kick around any longer on the economy. He’ll own it after this.

Job outlook starting to look good

This is good news:

In another sign of economic recovery, U.S. companies are planning to hire and invest more in the near future, according to a survey released Monday.

The National Association for Business Economics said the number of employers planning to hire workers over the next six months exceeded the number expecting job cuts for the first time since the recession began in December 2007.

The survey of 78 NABE members also showed more companies increased capital spending during the third quarter of 2009 than cut spending. It was the first time that happened since October 2008.

"NABE's October 2009 Industry Survey provides new evidence that the U.S. recovery is underway," said William Strauss, a senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

The Obama Administration keeps telling us the economy is doing great

Apparently, they didn't send Joe Biden the memo:

Times Says It Will Cut 100 Newsroom Jobs

You would think they would be holding Obama accountable for the economy. You would think.

The New York Times plans to eliminate 100 newsroom jobs — about 8 percent of the total — by year’s end, offering buyouts to union and non-union employees, and resorting to layoffs if it cannot get enough people to leave voluntarily, the paper announced on Monday.

The paper has made much deeper reductions in other, non-newsroom departments, where layoffs have occurred several times. But the advertising drop that has pummeled the industry has forced cuts in the news operation as well. The newsroom already has lowered its budgets for freelancers and trimmed other expenses, and employees took a 5 percent pay cut for most of this year.

The risk of a double-dip recession is rising

Economist Nouriel Roubini says the US economy is at risk of a double-dip recession. It's looking like jobs won't be back until 2011. That is just slap-you-on-the-back-fantastically great news!

There are also now two reasons why there is a rising risk of a double-dip W-shaped recession. For a start, there are risks associated with exit strategies from the massive monetary and fiscal easing: policymakers are damned if they do and damned if they don’t. If they take large fiscal deficits seriously and raise taxes, cut spending and mop up excess liquidity soon, they would undermine recovery and tip the economy back into stag-deflation (recession and deflation).

But if they maintain large budget deficits, bond market vigilantes will punish policymakers. Then, inflationary expectations will increase, long-term government bond yields would rise and borrowing rates will go up sharply, leading to stagflation.

Another reason to fear a double-dip recession is that oil, energy and food prices are now rising faster than economic fundamentals warrant, and could be driven higher by excessive liquidity chasing assets and by speculative demand. Last year, oil at $145 a barrel was a tipping point for the global economy, as it created negative terms of trade and a disposable income shock for oil importing economies. The global economy could not withstand another contractionary shock if similar speculation drives oil rapidly towards $100 a barrel.

In summary, the recovery is likely to be anaemic and below trend in advanced economies and there is a big risk of a double-dip recession.

Good Economic News

The economy is heading towards recovery, says Bernanke:

Economic activity in both the U.S. and around the world appears to be "leveling out," and "the prospects for a return to growth in the near term appear good," Bernanke said in a speech at an annual Fed conference in Jackson Hole, Wyo.

The upbeat assessment was consistent with the Fed's observations earlier this month. The central bank has taken small steps toward pulling back some emergency programs to revive the economy.

I don't think Stimulus means what Obama thinks it means

The job market is doing even worse than the overall economy, prompting concern inside and outside the government that deeper-than-expected joblessness could persist once the recession ends.

Jobless Claims Continue to Decline

I got excited when I read this headline...then I read the first sentence:

The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for state jobless benefits continued to plunge dramatically last week, but the drop in the filings still doesn't necessarily mean job prospects are improving.

Shouldn't "decline" indicate good? Damn you, Scooba Steve!

The Economy? It's worse than you think

According to a new article in the WSJ, the economy is actually worse than you think.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics preliminary estimate for job losses for June is 467,000, which means 7.2 million people have lost their jobs since the start of the recession. The cumulative job losses over the last six months have been greater than for any other half year period since World War II, including the military demobilization after the war. The job losses are also now equal to the net job gains over the previous nine years, making this the only recession since the Great Depression to wipe out all job growth from the previous expansion.

Here are 10 reasons we are in even more trouble than the 9.5% unemployment rate indicates:

June's total assumed 185,000 people at work who probably were not.

More companies are asking employees to take unpaid leave. These people don't count on the unemployment roll.

No fewer than 1.4 million people wanted or were available for work in the last 12 months but were not counted.

The number of workers taking part-time jobs due to the slack economy, a kind of stealth underemployment, has doubled in this recession to about nine million, or 5.8% of the work force.

The average work week for rank-and-file employees in the private sector, roughly 80% of the work force, slipped to 33 hours.

The average length of official unemployment increased to 24.5 weeks, the longest since government began tracking this data in 1948.

The average worker saw no wage gains in June, with average compensation running flat at $18.53 an hour.

The goods producing sector is losing the most jobs -- 223,000 in the last report alone.

The prospects for job creation are equally distressing. The likelihood is that when economic activity picks up, employers will first choose to increase hours for existing workers and bring part-time workers back to full time. Many unemployed workers looking for jobs once the recovery begins will discover that jobs as good as the ones they lost are almost impossible to find because many layoffs have been permanent.

This is warms my heart with goodness and cheer. Latest talks regarding the economic recovery are putting the end of this recession sometime in the middle of 2010....and then the tax increases will take effect, which will almost insure no new job creation. I'm never finding a job. And my unemployment is almost up. Feel free to help me out by visiting a couple of my "sponsors" who probably have no idea they are sponsoring my blog.

Mo' Money

Fewer economist favor another stimulus...but I'm sure that won't stop our Congressmen and President from passing another one.

Most economists believe the U.S. doesn't need another round of stimulus now despite expectations of continued severe job losses.

Just eight of 51 economists in The Wall Street Journal's latest forecasting survey said more stimulus is necessary, suggesting an average of about $600 billion in additional spending. On average, the economists forecast an unemployment rate of at least 10% through next June, with a decline to 9.5% by December 2010.

But, CNN has found a way to spin a yarn of good news in these bad economic times.

Help, the dollar has fallen and it can't get up

The dollar declined the most against the euro in a month and dropped versus the yen after China repeated its call for a new global currency.

But I voted for Hope and Change. If I had known this is what Hope and Change looked like, I would have voted for Larry, the guy who cleans our septic tank. The Chinese like Larry. He can make a mean Moo Goo Gai Pan.

I think we should trade Monopoly money. Then I can own Boardwalk and Park Place and put up a bunch of hotels and when you suckers land on it, you will owe me lots and lots of money. This is my new get rich quick scheme.

Now this is what we need more of

GE to add 1100 jobs.

Gotta make sacrifices

Hard times

I don't think "Stimulus" means what Obama thinks it means

This is not encouraging....

Since I live in Texas....

I guess since I live in Texas, this means I'm screwed!